I want to give my views, one of the poster is expecting $1 per share pre-spud & the other is expecting $0.5 -$1 per barrel valuation on commercial hit. Personally, I believe both are unrealistic numbers. This share is no way can go to $1 before spud. I can expect around 15c per share at spud; after drill permit & rig mob etc. so, in my opinion expecting $1/share pre-spud is totally illogical.
About 50c to $1 per barrel valuation, also doesn't make sense to me. 50c-$1 per barrel means $50-100m company valuation which is totally insane. Look at CVN (listed in ASX), had only 30 mbbls proven reserve and current valuation is $400m market capital despite v high drill cost. Where as, Winx-1 is in the proven area, and near to infrastructure, low drill cost and low development cost. I am expecting $2-3 per barrel valuation minimum, on commercial discovery. If CVN can be valued at $400m for 30 mbbls oil discovery (net), then RMP can be valued above $500m on 100 mbbls oil discovery (net). $2/b valuation means, US $200m = 57c (11x) & $3/b = US $300m = 90c (17x).
These are the conservative estimate and market is valued other companies much higher than $2/3 per barrel valuation and further to add, Winx is testing proven area which is highly derisked by Horseshow drill, which was the extension 21 miles south of Pika Unit. Further more, Stony Hills & Puka wells also de-risked the region, which was drilled by ConoccoPhillips and v close to horseshoe well. This place is full of oil and North Slops considers to be the oiliest place of the planet.
