weekend lounge 23/11/18, page-63

Hi Radx,

My thoughts on the Fed is that it will probably do it 0.25% increments, not less. We will get one in December, and we'll get another one in the Spring in the US. If they are not in a Bear market, then another about 4 months later. Don't know after that, but Powell is a little more hawkish than his predecessor. When business is starting to hurt and GDP has dropped in 2 or 3 consecutive quarters the Fed will announce a pause, saying that inflation figures are still below their ideal target, I think about 2.5%. By then interest rates in the US will be just a bit too high to match their current economic conditions. While on the topic, my thoughts are that in Aus. we are not going to get an interest rate rise for ages, and a drop is more likely than a rise in 2019.

Also a severe credit squeeze, significant drop in house and apartment prices, and investors leaving the housing market, which will accelerate the drop for residential property. When Shorten becomes PM, he will change legislation quickly making all of the above even worse.