Originally posted by ausheds
NdPr demand is going nowhere but up, the major tempering factor will be magnet recycling, incl swarf (manufacturing waste), Ce substitution will only broaden NdPr demand by improving cost effectiveness low/middle grades NdFeB, just as continued Dy/Tb deletion does increasingly high end.
NdPr recycling will grow as PMM are further designed to facilitate EOL reuse.
Why on earth would Lynas ever want NTU's 6 skinny patches of ultra low grade, unproven dirt with an extremely short mine life, when it has Duncan???
Compare the in situ grades:
NTU > Tb 0.008% & Dy 0.053%
Duncan > Tb 0.013% & Dy 0.061% PLUS 1.1% NdPr as primary economic, HRE is a by-product, readily accessible in the xenotime ore.
NTU just 57K TREO vs Duncan 435K TREO.
NTU is a total waste of resources & gross misallocation of capital IMO, soon to become patently evident.
Totally agree regarding Ce substitution, part of what I'm counting on, if Ce and La demand increases ahead of NdPr for a few years it's a whole new ball game, it would be quite sustainable for Ce and La to triple in price, this would assist keeping NdPr prices stable, last thing we need is for a spike in NdPr prices to flood the market with more Ce and La, thus rendering it worthless, IMO Dy reduction is much more advanced than NdPr reduction, both will never be truly deleted but large reductions in both are absolutely necessary for a healthy market.
New uses for Ce and La combined with using more of them in magnets to assist in NdPr reduction is a match made in heaven, total RE market needs to be multiples of current volume for this to eventuate, I would guess minimum 2-3 times, which at current growth rates may only be 7-10 years.
At 2-3 times growth the market for Dy is in deficit and minute amounts needed for most applications would be able to sustain high prices, with products that used to be 4% Dy, high prices were not sustainable, high prices are sustainable at 1% Dy, particularly when you factor in how much of the market will be totally Dy free by then, only applications left will be very high value.
I do have another question you may be able to provide some more clarity on, what the hell is the world going to do with all the Y getting produced?
Ce and La have a great future IMO but Y seems to be the unluckiest element in existence, destined to be tailings forever?
BHP and RIO don't make there money on any expensive fancy elements, it's the coal, iron ore, gas, oil, copper, etc, ie; Ce and La is the key to a sustainable industry with the specialty elements (heavies) having their place in the value chain.
If not NTU where does LYC bolster it's resources going forward?
Adding a "new LYC every 5 years" would make 25+ years of resource disappear in 15, not saying that's the time-frame it will happen as obviously others will step up to fill some of that demand, either way they will need new resources to remain the BHP of RE which is what I believe them to be.
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