Next Couple of Months, page-36

Ex, for some reason the file won't share/link.

In any case @AletLeBains the crux of the article is,

P1. A reservoir rock where the petroleum can accumulate.

P2. A trap so that petroleum is retained in a reservoir.

P3. A source rock containing organic material, which can convert to petroleum at sufficient
temperature and pressure.

P4. A migration route that allows the petroleum to move from source to reservoir rock.
The expression for the chance of geological success is then:

Pg = P1 ∗P2 ∗P3 ∗P4.

So if you take a rough average of 70% sucess across the 4 parameters, you get,

Essentially Pg(~25%)=70%x70%x70%x70%

Of course we don't know the details and how the individual factors are calculated, they are also open to expert biase and influence.

It should be noted that in probability there is no 100% certainty or factor of 1. So it's normal to use 90-95% or 0.9 or 0.95. This is indicative of absolute certainty. On the above calculation using 90%;

Pg=0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9

Pg=0.65 or 65% chance of success

Regarding the Icewine 50:50 my understanding was that originally it was taken as a "flip of the coin" assessment, it later evolved into the Geological CoS by D&M and the many promo news media releases.

In any case we are where we are now because the company had the foresight to spread the wings into conventional, just as well, many will say not before time but we were in essence tied to the unconventional because of PB, now not so much.

Cheers, if I work out my attachment I'll post, maybe it'll work for you Ex. Maybe it's the beers.

Cheers happy Friday all..