Next Couple of Months, page-19

Spiney, I agree with your points regarding valuing farmout at this point in time. I suspect it does carry some weight in our current market valuation, but perhaps not as much as Winx does, due to its imminence.

One note of caution to potential Winx valuation though...is that OSH paid in excess of US$3/bbl for proven reserves and contingent resource. The muli-year 19 well appraisal program from Armstrong/Repsol resulted in a discovered resource (gross) of about 500m bbls from a potential unrisked resource potential of 1.5b bbls (i.e about a billion bbls of prospective resource there).  So about US$1.3 / bbl for total resource, with about 1/3 of that as 'discovered'.

Our total target is 400m (gross) resource, and it would be unrealistic to assume that a successful Winx-1 will unlock them all as being 'discovered'. However if enough is 'discovered' (say about 1/3 or 130m bbls, gross), then the WB acreage may potentially have a valuation in excess of US$1 per bbl.  Conversely, if the solitary well unlocks materially less than 1/3 of the potential, valuation would, I would think, be similarly affected.

It would then become a tactical (consortium) decision as to selling out at a lower price or investing further to unlock more value.  Consortium partners could plausibly have different outlooks.  For RMP this is their only game for now and the bang for the buck on a per share basis could be mesmerizing.  For OEL, I wouldn't be surprised if they would see this as a means of partially exiting Alaska at profit for either direct shareholder return or reinvestment in GoM where they are actively producing as well as exploring.  For 88e, it is likely just a means to an end....both in terms of financing the Icewine unlocking, and in terms of stepping up near term intrinsic shareholder value.

All IMO.

BTW....reference to some OSH numbers on their transaction and implied intent.   https://www.oilsearch.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/13676/171101-Strategic-acquisition-of-interests-in-the-Alaska-North-Slope.pdf