Hey gents, sorry for the long winded posts - this announcement has some key information in it, which I have used to update the forecast I made a couple weeks ago...In short, potential +5.34M cash flow based on current forecasts, with lots and lots of potential tail winds if they can continue the ramp up to 2.2Mtpa...
Assumptions;
- $10M raised to buffer the estimated -A$13M cash flow in Sept quarter (-$13M from my post dated 8/10/18)
- A$230/t coking coal price (9% increase from A$211/t)
- 0.875Mtpa run rate, "Production is targeting an expected rate of 2,500 tonnes per day" (2500t/day*7days*50weeks = 875kTpa), not 1Mtpa
- Assume cash costs of A$158/t since the $145/t estimate was for 1Mtpa rate (145 * 1.09 = 158)
So still forecasting significant negative cash flow, however B2Y only raised A$10M in the placement and right now, they'd know what the quarterly negative cash flow could be (they have to report it in the next 7 days)... So although I have assumed -A$13M this could come in lower...
875kTpa Case - assuming mine cash cost of A$145/t from the August presentation
ROM Production: 218.75kT @ A$158/t
Cash Cost: A$34.56M
Met Coal Produced: 158.0kT @
A$230/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 27.9kT @
A$127.4/t
(USD$93/t and assuming 0.73 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: $36.35M + $3.55M (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: +A$5.34M / quarter
2.2Mtpa Case - assuming mine cash cost of A$100/t from Prospectus (assuming its USD)
ROM Production: 550kT @ A$100/t
Cash Cost: A$55.0M
Met Coal Produced: 397.4kT @
A$211.55/t
Thermal Coal Produced: 70.1kT @
A$127.4/t
(USD$93/t and assuming 0.73 exchange rate)
Total Revenue: $84.1M + $8.9M (assuming 100% of product sold)
Cash Flow: +A$38M / quarter ---
A$152M for the FY2020, worth the investment PE of 1X but lots of risk between now and then and many hurdles to jump...
