I was about to pull the trigger on a sell this week as it has been quiet tumultuous of late. However, I went to work and looked at the numbers in more detail.
Yes, they are spending a bit for their revenue of late but N3 has not yet kicked into full gear and I believe we will see the fruits of their collaboration materialize in 2019.They are growing at 275% YoY. That's nothing to flinch at. Yes they are spending for growth, and some may argue they should be getting more that $1 revenue for every $2 spent. Their presence in the market is growing and they are looking to establish themselves with 8 office globally. In order to establish globally, building the infrastructure and resources on a global scale takes....yes...you guessed it....expenses....before a sale is even made.
looking at the figures, LVT are only reporting ARR when a full 12 month contract is secured and the numbers are showing it
FY16
ARR - $1.03m
Revenue - $648,000
FY 2017
ARR - $4m
Revenue - $1,769,399 (capturing 1 mill ARR from previous year)
FY 2018
ARR - $15 mil
Revenue - $5,684,565 (capturing 4 mil ARR from previous year)
if the current trend continues, assuming livetiles continues growing at a average of 250% YoY - FY2019 should look approximately this -
ARR - $52mil
Revenue -$20mil
if we are using a more conservative multiple of x10 revenue since the correction (was up around 20 at its peak), the share price should sit around the 90 cent mark.
At that point we should be touching the void of breaking even within the year after.
Admittedly yes I do hope the general meeting sheds more light on the nature of travel and entertainment expenses and lifestyle expenses however these are points that are always raised when there is a CR and the price drops. I never hear anyone mention or question these expenses when the price is on a northern run (myself included, yes i did question the salaries on this forum recently).
Interesting times. I just hope the upcoming 4C doesn't place added pressure on the price but will wait and see. I believe once the tech space settles down globally and is back on level seas and LVT look like they are continuing to build hyper growth ARR without the need for a CR, i believe those standing on the side line will start making moves.
