Bang on Abos.
It looks to me like SBM has got the jump on the mkt with this deal. Its a great deal for us APC holders, but also there is limited downside risk for SBM holders as SBM can opt out. I dont think they will opt out, I dont think they are going in sceptical, but they have the deal structured in a way that tells the investment community we are not significantly bound by this if the mkt really does a massive shakeout.
Once they begin to commit capital it will quickly become obvious they will not opt out as the value of monies committed will dwarf the value of the deal itself. So expect it will be a go slow on initial exploration while gold corrects. I expect an exploration program out of SBM will trigger a rerate for APC dont you think Abos??
Commentary from Baz Fitz (commodity analyst) in recent article suggests that all markers pointing toward gold rally next year. I think the price action reeks of it. Last nights little blow out does anyway. This seems to be the observable pattern in mkts generally but the gold mkt in particular. The price is pushed down perhaps so that those in charge are always on the right side of the trade. Could see sub $1100 U.S bottom.
I only say this because the price moves never stack up with the narrative. Last nights action suggests the mkt was unaware that U.S interest rates would rise. Of course they were going to rise. It suggests that that this information was so unexpected that in the face of considerable growing geopolitical uncertainty (of course good for gold) that gold price should faĺl by $20 an ounce. Gold price can go up during rising interest rates. But we all seem to have totally forgotten?? Madness.
Anyway baz Fitz suggesting central banks are buying up the physical and points out that they are the ones in charge of where the gold price ultimately goes. Hes a pretty well known commentator. And hes not generally a doom merchant. I just feel it. Australian property wont collapse, but its going to be hard for some. Global economy will ultimately be fine but shortly we will see a return to 2016 levels of pessimism. I think post this 2 year period its boom time once again. So hold on tight in the face of all this bullshit people, and I mean it, all of it, it will pass. Just my thoughts
So the immediate 1 bagger question is what Nordo thinks of all this tie up with APC?? @nordesmic??
I cant imgine Nordesmic going boots and all into APC but I bet he had a little look... what you think Abos... he will be looking, yes I think do think so.. even as a curiosity.
Not really your type of investment @ Nordesmic but interested to hear your thoughts none the less.
Also wondering what you think of STN- Saturn resources... Only 40km from SBM processing facilites (I believe-let me check that). But if this was the case it makes for a compelling exploration investment. You only have to look at the attempted deal with RMS and EXU. 55 mill for EXU vs 15 mill currently for STM. RMS 130km from EXU and trucking the ore still works economically. EXU a higher overall grade but STM has high grade Ra zones not fully explored. I reccomend having a chat with Ian Bamborough the M.D for anyone interested. Good man and will give you the time. Has as much reason as any investor to talk this up... but he is a pretty understated Englishman so dont expect too much hype.
As far as STM goes Jorc update out this month. Currently 500,000 ounces, but he was confident of 750,000 ounces. (More than EXU-but as I said lower overall grade). Next year he hopes to achieve the magic million ounce mark. He seemed very confident of this by the way, and did not seem the natural spruiker of sorts.
So @ Nordesmic or others can you tell me if it is possible to treat 1 gpt ore with say 5gpt ore? Is blending different ore types an easy process? I dont imagine so, but they talk of toll treating deals like fait accompli. If so then STM could easily be a solution for SBMs lack of resources.
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