Ann: Half-Year 2018 Results and Briefing Pack, page-73

“Quite simply the industry doesn't get pre drill estimates right very often. Looked at statistically - the industry as a whole gets above P50 volumes in about 10-20% of discoveries. The average result per well is around 1/3rd to 1/10th of the original prediction depending on the area looked at. Around 1-2% of discoveries are above any pre-drill estimates, with around 20-30% below any pre-drill estimates. There's lots of examples, training courses etc. that are done on this subject, but no company seems to have successfully cracked this nut globally. It's one of the reasons I put zero emphasis on exploration as my investing strategy (and as I've mentioned before - I'm an exploration geologist)”

Following you discussion with Saba th, with interest.
Picked up on Norway openly sharing data/ statistics.
Your comments and statistics obviously make a sham of P50 pre drill estimates?
Is this mostly the promoting company’s self interest in promoting them selves? I am in technical field so perhaps share you distain at marketing hype? Is this just put down to natural human behaviour? In a scientific field things should be driven to the norm?
Closer to home, SNE was an exception in exceeding pre-drill estimates.
Presumably you see FAR’s P50 on Samo as “reverting to the norm “ in the sense of human behaviour, ie being overly optimistic.
That for instance WPL would value exploration potential as zero in a hypothetical T/o situation I understand.
Notwithstanding companies spend billions on exploration programs that turn up zilch. Again probably human to overestimate outcomes
But how is that different from paying a “margin” in a T/o situation for exploration potential?
Rational debate is often in short supply, so appreciate your comments.
I’m in the FAR camp of expecting, “irrational outcomes “, and as such be it on record that the last thing I want is a WPL “tilt” at FAR.
Appreciate your comments.