Total strategy and outlook:
Press release:
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/2018-strategy-and-outlook-presentation
Key point: 700k boe/d in global portfolio sanctioned by 2020 (assuming this is total share)
Presentation:
https://www.total.com/sites/default/files/atoms/files/investor_day_-_strategy_outlook_final.pdf
Slide 14: A6 / Myanmar mentioned
Slide 23: Myanmar mentioned as 60k boe/d development as part of 700k boe/d. So this would be a very fast turn around if sanctioned by (or in?) 2020.
Honestly though I don't expect Total shareholders to be watching Myanmar as it's a smaller development for them, so wouldn't be surprised to see times or production rate change with little comment from Total.
60k boe/d (I'd guess is full project calibrating to the other numbers on that map), so would suggest WPL share is 40% of 60k/day around 8-9mmboe/yr to WPL, so another smaller development (like GE / SNE).
Development could be via tieback to Totals facilities (lower CapEX / lower profit for WPL) or it's own facility. Considering that 60,000 boe/d = ~350mmscf/d - only 7 times the flow rate of the DST (from a vertical-ish well judging by WPL release). Gas doesn't benefit from water injection or anything so should be a reasonably simple development. Main cost likely pipeline either to shore or to Total's facilities.
For comparison: SNE phase 1: 100kbbls/day, 12.5 time SNE-2 DST (520 series) flow rate, requiring gas + water injectors upping well count and topside complexity. Complete simplification of DST results here - engineers will have analysed both and their build up curves to get an idea of how reservoirs behave around the well bore- but as investors we never get that info.
Either way - positive news - not a major project for WPL, Myanmar isn't known for great fiscal terms, but it's on the market's doorstep, and for a country looking at importing LNG this will be great news if it goes to the local market. Hard to estimate value unfortunately - no real info to go off - my guess would be 1/4 to 1/2 of SNE value to WPL - but early days so still probably still riskier as to if it will actually go ahead.
DYOR
