A very nice set of numbers.
Top line growth of 14% has essentially been maintained for the last 3 years if you strip out the loss of the omni-bollard which affected last years numbers
5 consecutive years of debt reduction from 5.6million to 1.4million in net debt currently
gross margin down a touch at 34.1%
Excellent signs of operating leverage:
- salary costs down from 20% to 18.7 over last 2 years, similar reductions in motor vehicle/occupancy/ IT/ travel and other costs
--> substantial improvement in the EBITDA margin to 7.1%
finance costs dropping dramatically from 1.3% to 0.7% in this time as well
This is operating leverage at play (and it is beautiful)- seen in the ROE increase from c1 to c9%
If the same trends continue for 1 more financial year, assuming some degree of multiple expansion for execution and ongoing balance sheet deleveraging; ongoing scaling effect on the line items above and other expenses steady % of revenue, you are looking at EBITDA in the order of 1.9m, NPAT of approx 1.2m, ROE of 14% and multiple expansion EV/EBITDA to 9.5 a share price target in the order of 45c.
It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers are even better though...
Some calculations below...
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Rev 16.269 16.936 19.193 %growth 18.2% 4.1% 13.3% EBITDA 0.504 0.8 1.371 %growth -38.1% 58.7% 71.4% PBT -0.157 0.154 0.71 %growth 74.4% -198.1% 361.0% OCF 1.022 1.033 1.47 %growth 942.9% 1.1% 42.3% Debt -2.496 -1.992 -1.379 % revenue -16.8% -20.2% -30.8% COGS 10.219 11.493 12.896 % revenue 62.8% 67.9% 67.2% Change inventories -0.103 0.183 0.239 % revenue -0.6% 1.1% 1.2% GP 5.947 5.626 6.536 % revenue 36.6% 33.2% 34.1% other income 0.113 0.102 0.124 % revenue 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% Salary 3.23 3.277 3.591 % revenue 19.9% 19.3% 18.7% MV costs 0.144 0.134 0.129 % revenue 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% Occupancy 0.353 0.362 0.338 % revenue 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% IT costs 0.156 0.16 0.151 % revenue 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% Travel 0.308 0.183 0.173 % revenue 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% Other 1.366 0.813 0.907 % revenue 8.4% 4.8% 4.7% EBITDA 0.503 0.799 1.371 % revenue 3.1% 4.7% 7.1% D&A 0.451 0.459 0.515 % revenue 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% EBIT 0.052 0.34 0.856 % revenue 0.3% 2.0% 4.5% Finance costs 0.21 0.187 0.143 % revenue 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% PBT -0.158 0.153 0.713 Tax 0.041 -0.035 -0.003 NPAT -0.117 0.118 0.71
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- Ann: Appendix 4E and Annual Financial Report
Ann: Appendix 4E and Annual Financial Report, page-13
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