Adam, analytically, you've pretty well got SDI on a string. Well done. On your EBITDA forecast of $14m you are forecasting FY19 revenue at $86m...presuming no improvements in margins (and obviously this is possible).That's around a 15% y-0-y improvement when this years comparison is just 0.6%.
I just cannot see where such an increase will come from. Yes, US sales will/should show a healthy improvement because of the exchange rate alone and if they tidy up the increase in USD terms this should contribute healthily. Brazil continues to be a non event...perhaps even a distraction. Europe and Australia are somewhat range bound.
No question, 2HFY18 was a good result but when inventory is down by $976k yet receivables are up by $1.394m in the same six months, auditing 101 suggests that one look at whether sales have been brought forward. Not saying, but it does happen' and for this year in particular at SDI' it does change both perceptions and realities.
SDI will never be a "shoot the lights out" share, but it is a solid, capable performer.
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