PGR Full Year Results & Next Steps

Although I'm not expecting much from PGR's FY result (beyond the already announced guidance), I do expect it to be a cyclical low for the company given the initiatives and brand acquisitions over the past 18 months (and generally improving retailer performance). Also, there is only so much additional provisioning, cost investment etc you can do to keep profits low ahead of a takeover offer. Accordingly, if I was Colleseum, I would be thinking that there is no better time for a takeover offer than shortly after the results announcement. While it is clear that they may just throw a low ball offer out there to pick up a few more shares, LK's 10.1% blocking stake is never going to allow a full takeover at a low ball price. This stock is clearly cheap and recent retail transactions suggest this business could easily be sold north of 70c (at a minimum). Accordingly, even if another takeover offer comes, as long as the blocking stake remains in place, I think the best investment decision is to remain a holder and wait for the hedge fund exit in the next couple of years to maximise your returns.