Ann: June 18 quarter production report, page-31

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16/08/18

11:52

Post #: 34974867
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Originally posted by hilly_sandman ↑

Also ran some numbers based on the quarterly production and quarterly financial report...

Total Revenue = $11,445M AUD
Receivables at end of July = $4.7M AUD (29% of coal sold, no payment yet)
Total Product Sold = 55kT Coking + 11kT Thermal
Thermal Price Sold = $90 USD/t or ~$120 AUD/t (sold to Glencore as per report), we can calculate the coking price received from other information...

Coking Price Sold = $11,445,000 - (11,000 * 120) + / (55,000 * 0.71) = $259 AUD/t = ~$191USD/t (about right for coking coal)

Lets now assume a 17% / 83% split thermal sales to coking sales.... And as above will use your 17kt/wk product (1mtpa) - noting only produced 5.5kT/wk in june quarter... This will equate to quarter production and revenue of;
Coking: 169.3kT * $259 AUD/t = $43.85M AUD revenue
Thermal: 34.7kT * $120 AUD/t = $4.16M AUD revenue
Total Revenue = $48.01M AUD quarterly revenue

IF they hit the 1Mtpa rate, rather lets assume 80% of this rate, or 13.6kT/wk --- or 177kt for the quarter (100kT produced in june quarter - so again about right)

Total Revenue = $38.4M AUD

From the 5B outflows for the next quarter are estimated to be $40.1M, comprising mostly production costs of $29.6M... So unless I am missing something, at present B2Y are going to be borderline break even on a cash flow perspective next quarter - and hence the SP pressure in the short term.

In the longer term, at a sustainable 2.2Mt annualised rate, IF acheived, they will be profitable with next to no debt and in a strong position in the current market.

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Hey Hilly.

Good idea to work backwards but I think you made an error with the coking coal price received.

You wrote:

"Coking Price Sold = $11,445,000 - (11,000 * 120) + / (55,000 * 0.71) = $259 AUD/t = ~$191USD/t (about right for coking coal)"

Wouldn't it be $11,445,000 - (11,000 * 120 AUD [thermal coal sales]) / (55,000 [coking coal sales]) = $184 AUD price received for coking coal per tonne over June QTR?

B2Y Price at posting: 30.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: June 18 quarter production report, page-31

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