Hey thanks mate.
Better to wait until Friday for broker data, just to ensure all transactions are included in the data. Will post it Friday morning. In the meantime, there are a few clues in the quarterly which might explain where this new selling is coming from.
Here's what I reckon
I think it's UK-based shareholders selling here on the ASX rather than back home on the AIM exchange. It would be some of the 80m Tranche 2 CR shares that were issued on 15/6/18.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180615/pdf/43vt8ppz10kks2.pdf
They have good reason to. I'll post two charts with notes. The first in the chart for the UK listing, the second for the listing here. In each I've boxed when the CR shares were 'in the money' (say 5% above the CR price), by how much and for how long. Have factored in the exchange rate.
UK listing:
View attachment 1217036
Aust listing:
View attachment 1217038
You can see the CR shares were way in the money here, and for much longer, than in the UK. So I reckon they've transferred their shares from their UK CREST holding to a CHESS holding then started to sell.
Some background and further evidence
The company secretary advised me a few months back that the majority of these 80m T2 shares went to UK investors in the dual-listed entity - same company, just that the shares held by UK investors are registered in their CREST system and can only be traded on their exchange (AIM on the LSE). If they want to trade them here, they have to transfer the shares to a CHESS holding.
It looks like they did. Why? The UK investors are all under the Computershare Clearing account (see top of the T20 list, these shares are registered offshore not here). This account has consistently held around 242m shares on behalf of these investors since January. But now, note that since April, 60m have gone, which means they were moved out of the CREST rego (and therefore out of the computershare clearing account) and over to CHESS, making them tradable here. Jan, April and July T20s below. You can see the change in the top account.
Jan
View attachment 1217042
April
View attachment 1217044
July
View attachment 1217046
I suspect they are being sold while they're still in the money, which they are. So the question then is, have these ones washed through? I suspect not yet, those large sells sitting there are ones that have already been transferred, obviously the sellers are happy to wait a bit for a bigger profit. The ones we see each morning that get quickly dumped are new arrivals.
The final proof is the absolute lack of volume in that first chart I posted above showing the UK listing. No real CR dump there so in all likelihood it's happening here.
All IMO. Just need to sit tight and wait for it to wash through over the next week or two.
