According to Morningstar, BOQ is now at fair value mark at $10.80.
Personally I think this has another dollar in it at least and if the dividend remains at current levels, I may hold this for a number of years yet.
article below and dyor
We lower our fair value estimate for no-moat Bank of Queensland owing to increased regulatory pressures, heightened housing price risks, an increasingly challenging credit growth environment and a more expensive funding outlook. Once we incorporate these changes, our valuation decreases AUD 1.70 to AUD 10.80, and at current prices, the stock appears fairly valued. Despite these earnings headwinds, we remain confident in BOQ's dividend sustainability, with our payout ratio, while still strong, trending downwards from an estimated 80% in fiscal 2018 to 75% in fiscal 2022. Should the impact of the abovementioned risks be greater than expected, dividends will be at greater risk. Due to higher regulatory pressures and slowing credit growth, we reduce our total loan growth assumptions, lowering annual credit growth over fiscal 2019-22 from 5.0% to 3.0%. This is driven by Bank of Queensland's currently weak housing loan growth of under 2.0% on a trailing 12-month basis, which we expect to persist in the coming years. Currently, the slack is being picked up by the bank's strong business lending, which has grown at an unsustainably high 11% on a trailing 12-month basis to May 2018, according to APRA data. Higher funding costs, continued challenges in pricing and higher hedging costs drive our reduced expectations for net interest margins over our five-year forecast period. Bank of Queensland's most recent announcement of an up to 15-basis-point increase in interest-only home loan interest rates and a 10-basis-point increase across owner-occupied and investor lines of credit is a clear attempt to recoup some of this NIM, although this repricing is likely to filter through after fiscal 2018. However, we believe these headwinds will persist for some time and expect a reduced ability for management to continue to reprice its loan book without material impact to profitability. We have reduced our fiscal 2019-22 NIM assumptions from 1.92% to 1.90% as a result.
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$10.80 Fair value ??
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$6.87 |
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Mkt cap ! $4.266B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.91 | $6.94 | $6.87 | $2.175M | 315.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 524 | $6.87 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.88 | 20110 | 12 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 24771 | 9.220 |
3 | 42303 | 9.210 |
8 | 85885 | 9.200 |
7 | 86977 | 9.190 |
11 | 100164 | 9.180 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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9.230 | 15728 | 3 |
9.240 | 64768 | 16 |
9.250 | 116890 | 16 |
9.260 | 105050 | 17 |
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