Don't get me wrong, I think this MIGHT turn out to be great for JAL and BRL (and this has yet to even remotely reflect in the BRL share price - although was nice to see a bit more action today). I am not arguing about the economics of it - cash cost is very good (and even lower for the first 4 years - bonus!).
It is funny - this reminds me of when rumors were swilling that BRL were about to takeover stockton and the share price accordingly went up dramatically (things were a bit different then as coal prices were also just beginning to rebound after some stunning lows, rather than being arguably 'as good as it gets' like we are today). I too had high hopes of analyst coverage, and a share price much higher than 16c it is today (unlike JAL - it is on track to do nearly 100m EBITDA this year), unfortunately expect for a short burst to 20c, it has never really got to where I believe it should be and the analysts reports didn't follow.
There are obviously some other factors with BRL, but back to JAL: (and address some of the other sensible points others have brought up) In my view:
- BRL do not need to jump into offshore projects and/or diversify: their recent investor presentation highlighted they are plenty busy at home! (this announcement is just a bonus! and absolutely agree JAL/BRL are more likely to get the go ahead from regulators in Canada than BRL's Buller project in NZ... as I posted on BRL, quite sad for the west coast really)
- Absolutely can see BRL shareholders buying JAL, even after this rise (makes sense seeing both companies are now intertwined)... will be interesting to see if directors of either company purchase more of either stock.
So BRL look to be the ones in the drivers seat (yes, even if JAL put them there) not only in terms of financing it, but in other areas: like existing strong customer contacts and technical knowledge. However, the share price has rallied extremely strongly (70% or something since prior to the announcement I think?) and I would still caution not to quite crack the good stuff open just yet - maybe this time next year when/if BRL announce they will proceed with construction and coking coal prices are still well above US$100 (ideally even above US$150) then we can all get really excited. Until then, it looks like JAL will continue to burn (not earn) cash - although at least another cap raise is looking unlikely.
(Ps: I really don't mean to rain on anybody's parade!)
JAL Price at posting:
20.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
