On the topic of whether CCE is financially sound - I don't see the capacity to pay current debt as an acceptable indicator. CCE is not going to get wrapped up when it can happily pay its debt, it will will be kept alive until it nears insolvency. So it is a mute point.
What determines whether CCE is financially sound in my mind is whether it will be able to maintain this ability to pay debt into the future. And do it without another SPP. And I have to say that I have no idea and little confidence that they can do this. What I would really like to see are some indicative forecasts. CCE knows what projects it has on its books, it can estimate its outgoings and they should have put together some forecasts based on various assumptions. When do they expect to be revenue positive? I would love to know and I suspect they have forecasts, or I hope they have forecasts. Any estimate is not writ in stone because things change but it allows an assessment.
Profitability in 2019. Don't just say that, tell us where this will come from, tell us the risks to achieving this and most importantly tell people that don't have the time and/or money to travel 6 hours to get to a face-to-face briefing. If this info is out there then I retract this and hope someone can direct me to it. I have yet to find it.
And any forecast should include CETO plans. I have been in this since CETO 3 (i think). Just waiting for CETO 6 development to finish and then move onto CETO 7. My guess is the CETO platform will be put into full commercial deployment somewhere around CETO 16 in 2043. That is a stupid ar$e joke but I am sure people get my point.
I remember (or remember being unimpressed with) recently a CCE market analysis. Something about medium sized systems being their target for integrated battery and solar. How about a bit more info. Where will these systems be placed? Is there a particular industry sector they will target? What is there estimate on the market size? Is there strategy to keep tendering for systems and hope they win them? Any business should have a comprehensive market analysis to support future work. Their analysis left me unimpressed and sounded like something MO made up over coffee at breakfast in the hotel that morning. Now here is novel idea, why doesn't CCE target the mining sector. Work with companies that send out energy intensive equipment and ensure that they develop a system that works seamlessly with the infrastructure. Sell it as an integrated option instead of just throwing bids out there to win stuff. It might not be viable but it is more strategy that I have heard from MO. Again is it because it live too far from Sydney? And if it is out there then I argue I should get an email with a link to all this stuff. I open every CCE email and read it and do not remember ever getting this type of information.
Gripe over.
Aaron
CCE Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
