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14/04/18
10:30
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Originally posted by BrentT
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I think this is blatantly untrue and the options are not a drag on EPS or dividend growth.
Since 1H15 MNY has increased the automotive loan book by $25.97 mill every 6M. So with 13.159 mil options @ $1.290656 MNY will receive approx. $17.054 mil in funding from the options i.e. less than the 6M average increase in the automotive loan book. I would expect this to be used in 1H19 and result in MNY requiring less debt.
MNY earns a return on net tangible assets of just less than 13% which includes provisions + interest on debt so lets just assume 13% as there is not debt associated with the options funding. This gives around $2.217 mil NPAT from the options funding.
With 160,442,198 shares on issue + 13,158,710 options the options funding will provide EPS of 1.277 c / share. EPS for FY17 was 18.81 c/ share so the, diluted, return from the options funding is around 6.8% on FY17.
Due to the recent debt arrangements, dividends increased 80% on pcp in 1H18 and I expect that this level will be maintained. We've gone from 5.75 c/share to 9 c/share. This was unexpected to me and I'm happily surprised.
So EPS is increasing at double digit rates, and will continue to despite dilution and we've just seen an 80% increase in dividends which will easily be maintained. I can't see that there is any drag on EPS of DPS from the options.
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The thing that didn't ring true to me in the interims was that they are forecasting to increase market share from 2% to 3% using the $150m debt funding but the rise in NPAT was only around 10%-15%. Either the increase in market share is mostly going to be in 2019 (& there will be a big increase nexrt year) or the NPAT forecast is significantly understated.
I expect the NPAT forecast to be upgraded in June.