Ann: Half Yearly Report and Accounts, page-36

That's all wonderful. I'm not proclaiming whether or not HVN is a buy or a sell - though I personally would not be buying at current prices. I agree with you on a couple of the points (gearing, quality management(ish), property portfolio), but I do wonder if you have considered those wonderful value metrics that you cite in the face of the fact that HVN operates in one of the most cyclical sectors in the economy.

So retail conditions are actually still relatively buoyant - still riding the tail end of the housing boom. So the question is, how will your wonderful metrics look when the retail cycle reverts? Just as importantly - perhaps more importantly - what can we expect those metrics to look like, on average, over the cycle, going forward.

I would have thought this was the obvious central question, to a buyer today, in thinking about how "outstanding" the opportunity might be. Tomorrows dividend, and yes share price, won't care too much about yesterdays (or today's) "outstanding" metrics.

But to makes matters worse, and more complicated, and thus necessitating even greater caution than the cycle alone would dictate (which is quite enough all by itself), the Australian consumer is stretched to a greater degree than any time in living memory (and beyond). And if that wasn't enough, there's the evolving uncertainty with respect to structural changes occurring in the industry.

So ask yourself, how much safety do you feel in those "outstanding" metrics? I've been a holder for a long time, and I've seen how savagely a largely fixed-cost business (for the franchisees) of this sort gets brutalised by even a "normal" turn of the cycle.