After MIN dropped out, the SP retreated to around the Mitsui 95c bid for a few days, then traded above that for the last few weeks with c.100m AWE shares traded on ASX. This included numerous special crosses totaling in excess of 5% of AWE's capital.
Based on disclosures made by Mitsui/ CERCG and requirements to match prices paid, fair to assume they weren't buying on-market.
Mitsui's offer closes 23/3; that's over 3 weeks away. Plenty of time for Mitsui to be gazumped. With Mitsui sitting at c. 1%, seems most holders (including the instos) are playing the waiting game.
Difficult to say what may transpire, however, based on comments made publicly by Ellison and Stokes, can't rule out MIN or SGH/BPT. Maybe they want holders to think "there isn't another offer coming in" so they don't pay too much over Mitsui's bid for their on-market stake?