VCN 0.00% 11.0¢ vulcan resources limited

1st announcenent not good 2nd good, page-29

  1. 3,055 Posts.
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    I'm out. Flogged my 80,000 odd shares this morning, cowden et al. can jam Finland where the sun don't shine as far as I'm concerned (which, 6 months of the year, is finland it seems...). I still make money, a fair whack of it, but only because I bought mostly before the rights issue.

    I think VCN is in for a tumble.

    Firstly, they raised $50M with the stated purpose of putting Kylylahti into production. I forgave them a delay of 6 months on the BFS/DFS (more like the "FFS!") because it's engineers, and we all know engineers are hopeless. But they muffed it and gave a hopelessly pat explanation of why it fell over. This is bad form; there's $50M of cash in overhang, waiting for a return, and as far as i see it, it's 24-36 months, plus. I'll take my cash and go elsewhere.

    The way I see it panned out, they have a mine, which is expensive. They add a hydromet plant atop this. total Capex +$300M. They don't have enough dirt to comfortably pay back that capital outlay before they run out of ore. So they have to go back to the ground and start drilling like crazy to find more dirt (and its getting deeper).

    this is fine. They'll find it, Cowden might be a clown but he's not a complete clown. But it will take 12 months to drill any substantial extension, and then it's 24-36 to production.

    Or they buffer themselves via the Kuhmo project. I honestly believe they will find 50-80Kt of nickel-PGE's, near surface. Money spinner for sure. But its a good 24 months of DFS on that...or maybe 30 if Cowden's in control and the timeline blows out 6 months again. Again, 3 years or 4 years till we see dirt through a mill and not barrows being pushed up hill.

    I've totally lost confidence. I'm out, and I wish you guys luck, especially if you've still got your SPP stock.
 
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