Happy Anniversary! (almost), page-18

@pdm

well I hope it stays at 10c

Well, everything else being the same, it should go down by approximately 40% (i.e. from 10c to 6c) because of the dilution from the refinancing.

But, everything else is NOT the same, actually far from it.
Vis-à-vis one year ago:

1) The POG (in USD) is 18% higher
2) Forecast production costs (also in USD) are lower
3) The Company is now in a Net Cash position (as opposed to Net Debt)

All these factors are supportive of a higher valuation (i.e. above 6c/share)

On the other hand, the underground mine at Talang Santo is still not in a position to be economically mined; therefore, when it comes to factoring in the contribution from Talang Santo to future revenues, a different “risk weighting” should be given to that component.

Perhaps, the best way of valuing the Company at this stage is by doing a Sum of Parts, using a higher forecast production cost and a higher discount rate for the Talang Santo underground component, to factor in the associated additional operational risks.

Does that seem reasonable to everyone? Any other views?