Ann: Full Year Results - Investor Presentation, page-58

Hey madamswer

You seem to have followed this name in some detail and have gone to the trouble of doing some working cap analysis; therefore I respect your concerns. After all, since it’s peak in the late 2000’s, BOL has had numerous false starts - this could be another instance.

However I think that if activity does sustainably pick up from here, the upside is far larger than what your analysis suggests - and this is by far one of the best ways to play the East Coast infrastructure / renewables boom.

In 2009, the end of the last peak, the business delivered 69 mil of EBITDA with 504 mil of gross PPE (@cost). Subsequently Archer made a bid at 51 cents a year later.

Today the business has 375 mil of gross PPE -   whilst the annualised 4 mths ytd suggests the business is only running at 24 mil EBITDA - there is plenty of upside. When equipment availability gets tight, prices rise and payment terms improve. (Think EHL/Westrac). Seen it happen too many times.  

Personally I am trying to figure out whether the infrastructure projects ( as highlighted on page 13 of the AGM) all actually need cranes ...