Yes, both very fair comments and i probably should have mentioned the dividend issue in my prior comment. I suspect dividends are quite a long way off as far as MCE goes because they'll need to reinvest in working capital if/when the business gets its legs back so it's not as big an issue in this particular case, but it's generally an important consideration. A back-of-envelope DCF would, of course, capture this better than a TV formula alone.
And certainly agree on cash in the EV calculation - the bigger the net cash balance as % of EV, the more i'd be inclined to apply a discount to it in general. Funnily enough, just this week i've been buying a textbook example of this issue in action - a stock with ~50% of its EV in cash/liquid investments, and the other ~50% of its EV in a consistently profitable/cash-generative business trading at ~3x bottom-of-cycle EBIT. I basically did exactly what you're suggesting as far as the net cash goes - i applied to it a haircut at 10% increments from 0% to 60% (based on my assumption of what return the cash will earn as a % of my cost of capital) such that in the 60% haircut scenario the net cash comprised only ~20% of EV and therefore ~80% EV was in the profitable business, and in that scenario the profitable business was trading at more like a 4.5x bottom-of-cycle EBIT (still cheap enough for me to buy...but only just...and then i chastised myself aloud for buying such crud).
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27.5¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $72.45M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
26.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 26.0¢ | $57.59K | 205.0K |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 7703 | 27.0¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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28.0¢ | 36500 | 1 |
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1 | 8500 | 0.285 |
1 | 6500 | 0.280 |
1 | 15000 | 0.270 |
1 | 10000 | 0.265 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.320 | 3031 | 1 |
0.340 | 3649 | 1 |
0.345 | 12762 | 1 |
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