They need a 100 TJ/d plant and a few additional wells, so around $300M capex total IMO, or $150M net to AWE.
EBITDA depends a lot on what gas price they can secure and what their opex costs are. At the $4.50/GJ they reported in the last quarterly it would be around $60M p.a. net AWE. If they can get $6/GJ long term (not sure how viable that is in WA with the reservation policy) more like $90M p.a.
Put those numbers into a 10 year, 50 TJ (net AWE) DCF calculation and see what you get... the rest of the business is barely breaking even, so Waitsia Phase 2 should reflect most of the value of the company. Further growth will require either Phase 3, follow-up exploration or higher gas prices for BassGas and Casino. Or eventually AAL, but that will require significantly higher oil prices.
AWE Price at posting:
50.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held