Next Mining Boom Coming, page-27

OK, so you dont really understand commodity pricing. Its like saying bread was 2'6 for years in the 50s. You might say bread can get down to 25c a loaf again but, under normal scenarios, it will never happen.

IO was not at $15/t for 30 years, I dont know what you base that statement on. Historically, the IOP has risen from about $6/t, when Australia started up its Pilbara mines, to a peak of about $185/t during the bubble of 2012. For most of that period, the seaborne IO market was closely regulated by the Japanese Steel Mills consortium, but it basically rose with inflation.

In fact, looking at data going back to 1962, and adjusting those prices for "real" values (ie, inflation), we see that the IOP has rarely dropped below about $30 in real 2014 terms, with it going momentarily below that just before the IO boom. (https://www.ausimmbulletin.com/feature/perspectives-on-the-long-term-outlook-for-iron-ore/). In 2017 terms, that floor is now more than likely about $35 - which is why when IOP collapsed to $37 relatively recently, it sprung back up pretty quickly.

Now, you might be skeptical, and you might be following your own agendum, but the reality is even the 3 big miners cant produce IO at $15/t. Sure, if oil dropped to some unrealistic low price (<$5/barrel) and labour costs dropped similarly, and the cost of capital was almost zero, and government royalties disappeared, and GST disappeared, etc etc, they might make money at $15/t, and bread might cost 25c/loaf, but how realistic is that?

As I said, it will never happen ("never" excluding Armageddon, etc). I suspect you're invoking Armageddon, in which case IOP and share prices will be the least of your concerns, but at least you can look forward to 25c bread!