Yes it is a difficult beast to analyse with all the moving parts at the moment. That cash flow chart didn't make a lot of sense to me either.
What I have tried to do to analyse it is take the expected cash and debt positions once steady state production is achieved to be able to get a cash flow multiple. On this basis the stock is a lot cheaper (trading at 40-60% valuation of others) than the peer group above >250koz and with far greater reserves. The chart below is one that isn't always included in their presentations (I had to dig through about a year's worth of announcements to find it) but it is the key for me. If Alacer is churning out 280koz (80% basis) in 2019 and 2020 with margins of US$700/oz the market will not be able to resist it. Then they have the potential for oxide extensions, other projects and other good exploration ground. In these organic growth prospects past 2020 I would say they are stronger than almost all Australian peers.
The IRR number is lowish but probably more like 22% now with Turkish Lira depreciation and slightly ahead gold price from feasibility assumptions. Don't know if the market cares too much about IRR once you're through the financing gate. Cashflow is king.
AQG Price at posting:
$2.15 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held