Ann: Philippines Mindanao Island Security Status, page-23

Miningnut I enjoy reading your contributions to the MML discussions. You seem to be a thoughtful and considered investor on mining...

However I am not as optimistic on your assessment on the geopolitical developments and I feel you've made quite a few assumptions in your above comments that are not consistent with the reality and the past.

Firstly, one man will label a fighter as "terrorist" and another man would label them as a "freedom fighter". People don't rise up in rebellion because they are well governed.

I suspect there are reasons for the fighting in Mindanao that have nothing to do with ISIS and muslim's wanting autonomy (but they will never be reported in the media).

I would not be surprised if the enemies of Duterte both domestically and abroad see (and use) the ISIS issue as to their advantage.

So it may well be BECAUSE Duterte is president that there are problems in Mindanao (Duterte's home island).

Secondly, Duterte and his family used the "iron fist" policy in the Davao region of Mindanao for nearly three decades and it did not result in an economic miracle for the region. To the contrary Davao remains one of the poorer and least safe regions of the Philippines.

If it hasn't worked in the last three decades it's probably not going to work with more time or just because his same strategy is being employed a national level.

Of course what he did acheive in that three decades was fairly unrivaled rule of his region.

Thirdly, Duterte's actions as mayor of Davao were those of someone who was VERY anti-mining, and since his presidency, and in spite of all the political double-speak, his actions (and those of his appointees) reflect that of someone who has only taken his anti-mining policy to the national level. That can bring nothing good for Medusa.

Forthly, tourism will not strengthen the mining sector in the Mindanao, to the contrary it will weaken it.

Fifthly, in my experience of more corrupt/developing nations "more security" (be it local security, police or military) means more people you need to pay off and more often.

Less security and being left ALONE is VASTLY superior from an economic and operational stand point.

Look at Gina Lopez, during the DENR reviews and all the extra attention that got put on the miners only resulted in numerous complaints of corrupt payments and graft even when she was there to "clean up" he industry, just as Duterte will promise to "clean up" the terrorists.

Unchecked power is what leads to corruption and instability. So I doubt greatly that Martial Law will lead to a good outcome for Mindanao.

I'm not saying Duterte's response to the issues in Marawi was wrong or if he even had a choice. I'm just saying it will not lead to anything good as you a supposing.