Nice insights.
Yes, I understand it is Tawana's intentions to further upgrade the JORC compliant resource towards the 30-50mt range. I also understand that further drilling in surrounding pegmatites will likely upgrade this resource. Again, this will be solid progression. However, my comments were mainly pointing out that the key is not only to increase the resource but also maintain the Li2o percentage. What typically happens with mining companies is that they will drill and mine their most attractive areas (with the best chemistries) first, and subsequently develop the lesser areas later. This is why it is not uncommon to see companies' resource grades drop as resource quantity increase. I am not saying that this will happen, but again, what I'd like to see is the grade maintained while tonnage is increased.
For the operating costs; the number I mentioned was retrieved from a Canaccord Report. I believe that their estimate of a high $400s long term average production cost is very reasonable. I reference this against Galaxy Resources' Mt Cattlin operation which is running at ~A$500/t operating cost per ton of Spodumene output currently. However, this figure is expected to decrease towards the $300/t figure estimated in the long term as production ramps up. Given the circuit at Mt Cattlin is designed for a higher 1.6mta compared to Bald Hill's 1.2mta, it makes sense that TAW's will likely experience somewhat higher production costs than Mt Cattlin. Furthermore, it is very likely that initial production costs will likely exceed A$600/t like it did over at Galaxy. This is no issue however as it will decrease over the coming years but just something I decided to mention in the previous post.
In terms of the Tantalum credits, I disagree that it is low will cover most of the production costs. The credits over at Galaxy is around ~A$100/t according to a research report, a large shortfall compared to the budgeted production costs. Hence, Tantalum credits should only be viewed as the icing on the cake and not a driver of revenue. This is also why many studies are typically ex. by-product credits like it is at both Galaxy and Tawana. Bare in mind as well that most Brine operations have much lower operating costs than almost all hard rock mines (unless you're Greenbushes?) so decreasing production costs is extremely important in my opinion.
For Burwill, I agree that financials right now is not a big deal. But I maintain the stance that they are a very lightweight company. Their market capitalization in Hong Kong is around $1B HKD. This sounds like a lot until you realize shell companies there can go for 300-400mil HKD. Despite saying this, I only recommend that investors be vigilant towards offtakers; a point of concern raised at the 9th Lithium Supply & Markets Conference.
