Good analysis but I think it is irrelevant because in my opinion CW will never win the court case and they would end up 1) Staying with sigma for their supply 2) Pay a big fine for an exit clause that "surely?" would have been included in the contract. Outcome 1 would be straight forward but outcome 2 would allow sigma to maintain around $.95 share price and rely on organic growth at the worst. I am not familiar with how the law part goes but surely a contract is fundamentally designed to ensure continuity and stability of an agreement. Afterall what is the point of a contract if you can just get out of it, might as well not have it at all.
Even if CW manage to wiggle themselves out of the contract to the detriment of SIG, who would dare to be their next supplier? API (held)? The wholesaler business is a close knit one afterall, SIG got bitten and so API or some other wholesaler would then brave the storm? What is the logic at play here???
In my opinion, CW will not win the court case. It might just be a ploy in the grand scheme of thing to drag down the share price to an attractive level? What do you guys think. I think people are speculating and drowning in analysis too much and left out fundamentals. I think CW would back out sometime in the near future, I mean it is a contract.....
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