Hi
@Jako64 I appreciate the link and I'll start watching it later tonight.
Cheers, despite reading MtM and Trading in the shadows this thread was the best source of knowledge I have come across. Even more so because of its real time relevance to our own market and stocks we know. So yea, with the prior knowledge I think this thread was the resource i needed to really drive it all home. Now my next task is to roll it all into a clearly defined (and if possible backtested) set of entry and exit criteria/rules/strategy that's both binary in decision making yet fluid enough absorb the noise.
Regarding the bottom picking, I should rephrase that to "...an obsession with trying to anticipate the dead the bottom of a reversal" as in not really waiting for conformation. I think it stems from the love of catching a bounce (intraday, bad (terrible) news bounces (SRX, AAD style)) which led to thinking I could apply that on a larger TF, but i have learned quite quickly that a bounce like that is caused by emotional over reaction, total panic and utter disregard for the sell price (as you frequently pointed out, just wanting to get anything for their "worthless" shares) and is even more exasperated by the fact that all of these decisions tend to be under huge time pressure....and it tends not to play out like that on a longer TF. People have time to think on a daily TF and the candle resembles that. I guess the AR is the equivalent of the bounce on a daily TF as its all fractal really.
Anyway, hands covered in knife wounds, I decided it was time I added in some actual probabilities and stats to my trading "strategies" (more "hypotheses") so the first step was to learn the proper Wyckoff/VSA method so I could understand what I was trying to quantify.
So, the middle of the trend, I completely agree, and whats worse is i know that if sufficient cause has been built then the move will likely be large enough that missing the first 10% isn't going to make too much of a difference. I have been following a fair few base consolidations lately and im just waiting for that perfect moment to enter. I think for me its the spring of the support or that last little supply test mid range. Nice RRR there usually.
^All makes it sound like thats the only play I use. I actually realised while first learning the method that so much emphasis/focus online is placed on that "Wyckoff accumulation diagram" and at the start I thought that was kind of the only application. But the past year as I have developed my understanding and skills I realised that the logic can be applied to almost every setup and bar and now I couldnt imagine looking at a chart from any other perspective. It is afterall just simple logic really.
I think one of the toughest things to identify is re-accumulation vs distribution. I have flipped camps on BSL that many times. Im still kind of undecided. Same with QBE. Ill post a chart later with my thoughts and if you have time would you mind having a look.
Cheers.
@Incongruous was it you I saw using amibroker? What data feed are you using and is it real time? Cheers
