When the Sept 2016 quarterlies came out, COGS were greater than receipts, which caused some concern.
Since then, Dec Quarter COGS were 1,568 / 2,128 = 74%. Margin 26%
Mar Quarter COGS were 2,434 / 3,294 = 74%. Again, the Margin was 26%.
The information provided to State One Stockbroking to cover a 5 year period, however, was based upon the assumption of 82% COGS and 18% Margin. Have we increased our Margin, or are we just drawing network equipment out of stock, which has been paid for in a previous quarter?
Queensland electricity prices have been rising.
Maybe we locked in our costs at a low price, and have benefited through good management?
The COGS estimate for next quarter is 4,540. Are we finally ramping things up?
At a margin of 18% receipts would be 5,536; at a margin of 26% receipts would be 6,135.
My receipts spreadsheet, however, only estimates 4,332 receipts for the June quarter.
Admin and staff costs jumped from 516 in the Dec Quarter to 868 in the March Quarter. Maybe this was due to costs associated with the CR, but management are now predicting admin and staff costs to drop to 256 in the June Quarter.
I have no idea when cash flow break even will occur. With rubbery figures like these - maybe December, who knows.
Until management starts communicating better with shareholders, it will be hard for investors to get comfortable and confident in the business until it matures a little more.
The State One Stockbroking Forecast:
Updated spreadsheet:
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