Yes, I usually look at things based on known facts, rather than simply assuming unknowns such as a cut in broadcast licence fee. In any event, I was under the impression the licensing fee was cut last year and is now around 3.4% of revenue, so I don't think a further reduction will make a huge difference to an NPV calc if revenue continues to decline while cost of sales remains relatively fixed, which I see as the core problem with this business - that is, profit is going to decline much faster than revenue.
What's the magic of 7% annual decline? I'd be interested to see your workings if you're willing to share them, particularly if you're building up line by line from revenue, gross margin and operating costs, then running a DCF. Also would be interested to see how you derive a big terminal value - I would have thought that the TV of PRT in, say, a 10-year DCF would be a very small component of total return given the trajectory of the business.
I have no problem buying bad assets, I just don't think PRT is at a great price.
PRT Price at posting:
30.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held