Sell Your Soul, page-58

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Tully8282

893 Posts.

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17/04/17

07:54

Post #: 24094227
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Originally posted by DSD ↑

Broke even on my original short opened 7 months ago (see above post) when SOL was $16.02. In hindsight I was fortunate to exit when i did. Since then changes have occurred:

a) Building approvals have decresed significantly and commencements have begun to decline spelling weaker sales for BKW's products. SOL is largest holder in brickworks.
b) SOL's biggest holding comprising over 40% of their assets is their 25.2% share of TPM. Since thread started TPM's SP fallen further to $6.66. Plus TPM have had a CR at $5.25 and i expect SP to fall further when trading resumes.
c) TPM has successfully bid for 700 MHz of mobile spectrum and plans to spend about $1.9 billion (in total) on building a new 4G system from scratch. They paid top dollar for the spectrum and it will take 3 years to roll out the infrastructure.

All this at a time when NBN is making rapid gains and (more importantly) TLS is ramping-up its new 5G mobile system. 5G will be far faster connection downloads than either NBN (fibre to the node) and 4G.

Will TPG's gamble pay off? Despite good cash flow the competition in telecom mkt is intense. NBN speeds have disappointed many customers and this could rub off on the telco providers.

I expect TPM will resume trading well below current SP of $6.66 and this will in turn drag SOl down with it.

SOL currently cum div 22c but decided to open a short this morn at $18.88. I reckon SOL looks more than fully valued at this level .

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DSD. Looks like you're trying to catch a 'rising knife'. Good luck with the short. NHC could receive approval for one of their major mine expansions soon which could be a risk to the short??

I'm long on this one.

SOL Price at posting: $18.95 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $34.25		Change 0.330(0.97%)		Mkt cap ! $12.41B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$34.72	$34.72	$34.16	$7.914M	230.7K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1710	$34.24

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$34.26	330	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2064	26.890
1	4429	26.870
2	5019	26.840
4	13889	26.820
1	153	26.810

Price($)	Vol.	No.
26.940	1229	1
26.950	4947	1
26.970	5993	2
26.990	4687	1
27.000	4408	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 22/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

SOL (ASX) Chart