4 years is 16 quarters. At $50M cashflow its $800M FCF alternatively $1.6B at $100M. I would rather take the middle at current of $1.2B.
This is based on rundown.
However, often money brings options and with experienced team it sorts itself out.
Most problems are due to money running out and inexperienced hands having a go. I.e. paying to learn.
Contractors do it tendering too low to gain experience in other sectors, states, greater complexity projects.
Probably same goes with miners have a go at things the first time shareholders end up paying for poor design, construction or operational management.
Ann: Production Update Q3 March 2017, page-17
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