Ann: Media Release December 31 2016 Results, page-7

"They don't seem to have benefited greatly from the currency tailwind since coming down from parity with the USD but are blaming the brexit currency headwind for the poorer results."

@suhm,

When the A$ was at parity with the US$, SDI was generating Revenue of around $55m (FY2011 = $54.8m and FY2012 = $56.4m).

With the A$ now at around 0.77c, Revenue is running about $153m pa, almost 3 times higher than the parity days.

In terms of profitability, in FY2011 and FY2012 EBIT was $2.0m and $3.0m, respectively.
Last year, when the A$ averaged around 0.73 SDI's EBIT was $11.4m, and this year it will probably come in at $8.5m.

So I'm not quite sure how you figure that they haven't benefited from currency tailwinds.

Interestingly, on the subject of the ebbs and flows of currency cycles, it is noteworthy that the last time the A$ was around the current level, namely in around 2005, the company's net profits were around $3.0m. This year, NPAT will be between $5.5m to $6.0m, depending on what the A$ does in coming months.

That gives you some idea of the increase in the intrinsic value of the business from one corresponding point of the cycle to the next, roughly around 90% over the "currency cycle" (well, to the extent that one cycle can be representative).


"Anyone know how much seasonal variation there was traditionally in earnings and if it really is that significant?"

I assume you are talking about JH vs DH seasonality. The answer is it is most pronounced.
Again, considering the EBIT level, for example, June halves are typically between 20% and 80% higher, with an average in recent years of 60%:

SDI's EBIT by Halves (all $m), with JH to DH ratios in brackets:
DH03: 3.6
JH04: 7.8 [JH = 2.2 x DH]
DH04: 0.8
JH05: 3.0 [JH = 3.3 x DH]
DH05: 1.4
JH06: 6.0 [JH = 4.4 x DH]
DH06: 2.1
JH07: 4.4 [JH = 2.1 x DH]
DH07: 0.0
JH08: 2.6 [N/A]
DH08: 3.1
JH09: 2.5 [JH = 0.8 x DH] ...(GFC effect)
DH09: 2.3
JH10: 2.7 [JH = 1.1 x DH]
DH10: 0.9
JH11: 1.1 [JH = 1.1 x DH]
DH11: 1.0
JH12: 2.0 [JH = 1.9 x DH]
DH12: 3.4
JH13: 5.1 [JH = 1.5 x DH]
DH13: 3.0
JH14: 4.9 [JH = 1.6 x DH]
DH14: 3.9
JH15: 5.3 [JH = 1.4 x DH]
DH15: 4.1
JH16: 7.3 [JH = 1.8 x DH]
DH16: 2.9
JH17: 5.6 [JH = 1.9 x DH] [Forecast per Madam's amateur modelling]



Hope that helps.