Ann: ERM Power announces LGC Fulfilment Plan for 2016, page-57

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FSW

122 Posts.

31/01/17

07:48

Post #: 22234334
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Originally posted by stumpytrunks ↑

FSW - I'm not pretending to know the answers - I've just put my take on things out there for people to play with. Most brokers would be looking at the Statutory numbers, which are a crapshoot in this business. The biggest driver for a sell recommendation, in my opinion, is the weighting of results toward the second half. This will see 50% of the costs in the first half, but likely only 40% of the revenues. It has the potential to look like a disaster, if people haven't done the numbers on the full picture.

To answer your question a little more deeply regarding margins. Please see page 9 of the 2016 FY results. You will see that margins have not been below $3.50 in two and a half years. I feel that a full year average of $3.00 is being conservative.

I'm all for discussing the negatives of a stock, but you must admit that it looks a bit strange that all of your posts have been on the EPW board and anti the company. Are you shorting, working for a broker or another energy company?

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Not short, nor looking to short, just researching a high div yield stock to determine whether or not the yield is real or just a chimera. The margin structures point to the risk of buying this stock for yield. You note $3/MWh - by way of reference the per MWh margin for Origin Energy has moved more than a dollar within a reporting period ....

EPW Price at posting: $1.22 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Ann: ERM Power announces LGC Fulfilment Plan for 2016, page-57

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