The reason I haven't bought this is I have a strong aversion to total loss but this is only one of a range of scenarios - say a 5% probability and you are right to point this out. Much more likely is a dilutive outcome of some form still valuing the company higher than today's price - if the company sells vessels and trades through then I would value it on its historical earnings and assets.
I reckon they can scrape through with a $50m raising but they may want a safety margin.
Do you risk a total loss for chance of making 5x your investment, for many people the answer may be yes.
What you suggest about management and large holders is I think hopeful. They do shotgun to the head raisings to little guys - but put yourself in the shoes of a multimillionaire investor. They will be the ones dictating terms and the directors better be asking nicely.
