Yea, companies we don't know or care about can go wherever it wants. Was referring to companies I have looked at in some detail but thought the market timing isn't yet ripe... like AQS [mining/food testing], even Aurizon, even Cochlear.
Those are examples of me trying to time the market, or time when it'd be just before a turnaround to then buy. Couldn't do it.
The only two I got "right" so far was WOW and CSL. Right in that I didn't bite thinking it'd go lower. So far that prove correct but that's just luck.
There's a couple of stocks I loaded up literally two weeks too early. Would have made quite a handsome return if I was asleep or take a holiday.
MRM might very well prove to be the third
But as always, my excuse will be that I buy for the long term.
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Will add my two cents to your queries above there.
Where did you get the $90M in cash required from? Interest and principal repayment?
MRM isn't negative net current liability as its balance sheet show. At least not the -$7.6M.
I mean, unearned revenue and deposits aren't exactly liability to be paid out.
You factor that with the projects it had since started (one boat on INPEX, a second to commenced H2); the tax returns; the potential wins and starting of new contracts... the relatively low debt ratio, no new capex. It would comfortably remain solvent without need for a cap raise until at least FY2018.
How comfortable a margin depends on whether it win jobs, sell any more boats, getting receivable on time and delaying payables... So these we gotta work out in finer details and get a clearer picture.
But under various scenarios, I'm happy with its current prices. Would I be happier if it drop like a rock when the bank require a cap raise and dilute... sure. But will it?
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Further... don't forget that there are corporate merger and privateers around. That might not be as speculative as it sounds.
