Some quick calcs for us to ponder please feel free to correct this as it does leave a lot of things out. Here are the basics for the tin
Redmoor project
Collapse of world tin cartel in 1986 begins to kill off Cornish and Devonshire tin mining.
• Last major Cornish tin mine closed in 1998.
• New range above US $20,000 per ton established
• Prices may rise to about $30,000 a metric ton in 2018-2019 (ITRI chief analyst)
Demand • Sustained: China - c40% consumption, Lead free soldering - c50% consumption
• Price inelastic as tin cost in final products typically <0.25% of total product cost, so a potential tin price rise unlikely to impact demand
We have 13.3 million tonnes inferred and I haven't allowed for the high grade stuff and potential for the high grade tin to be closer to 4-6 million additional tonnes
You guys do the math on potential here my figures add up to a lot more than a 10 mil mc
Lochinvar Project coking coal
Parameter Unit Result 1 Production LOM ROM Mt 47 2 LOM Saleable Coal Mt 34 3 Life of Mine Years 26 4 Annual Ave. ROM Mt 1.9 5 Annual Ave. Saleable Coal Mt 1.4 6 Revenue Benchmark HCC Price US$/t 165 7 Ave. Realised Price US$/t 143 8 Average Discount % 13.3 9 Operating Costs Unit Operating Cost US$/t 70 10 Capital Costs Construction Capital US$ M 284 11 Life of Mine Capital US$ M 593 12 Cash Annual Cash US$ M pa 75 13 Operating Margin US$/t 73 14 Valuation1F1 NPV (@9%) US$ M 263 15 IRR % 20 16 Payback (undiscounted) Years 4.9
The current price per tonne coking coal is well above the initial estimates above increasing the profit margin and reducing payback time
Coking coal volatility is off the cards, with prices likely to remain high after recent rallies, Goldman Sachs believe.
China’s recent plans to dramatically slash its coal output by reducing its mining and steel sectors has driven metallurgical coal’s price through the roof, seeing the spot price double to more than US$205 per tonne.
The quality of Lochinvars coking coal is among the best in the world
Indicative Lochinvar Coal Product Quality
These results confirm the potential for Lochinvar to produce a low ash high volatile coking coal product at a high yield that will be attractive to the UK and European steel industry and provide a strong platform for the completion of the Lochinvar Scoping Study.
Market and Infrastructure
Lochinvar is well positioned to become the UK’s first major new underground coking coal project in over 30 years. It is a unique position to deliver a high quality coking coal at very competitive price because of;
- Proximity to main West Coast Railway which links directly to Steel mills in UK and ports to access European market
- Lower labour rates when compared to Australian mining costs
- Excellent fiscal regime with low corporate taxes and royalties
- Strong coking coal market demand in UK and Europe.
- Domestic coke and steel makers (4.8Mt coking coal imports in 2012)
- Export ports proximal to markets in Western Europe (22.9Mt coking coal imports in 2012)
- Again you guys do the maths but with our current mc this has a long way to go to get to fair value without including the gold which I see as a side show.
- Thank you for reading and hang on to your hats
- PG
This has multibagger written all over it
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