Thank you, danginvestor. I appreciate your efforts.
Let me declare I own ALQ, though a small amount and with the full knowledge the price will likely be lower after completing the share buy back. I want exposure to Australian manufacturing and it is a real struggle to find anything worthwhile.
You make the case AHY will come to a screaming halt in Sept 2017 on refinancing. I don't agree. Unless we enter a liquidity crunch lenders will refinance - though it may be on onerous terms and holders should watch the interest rate agreed very carefully as a indicator of distress.
ALS faces a daily struggle with the supermarkets - all are trying to capture a larger share of the consumer spend and endlessly unrolling strategies to screw down suppliers. We are witnessing the gradual breakdown of the supermarket duopoly, so the balance of power is shifting a little.
My play is on a lower $A as the terms of trade go hard against us. Real income per person has been falling for years in this 'controlled depression' (Martin Wolf). We will still need to wipe our noses and bottoms and import prices will rise strongly, making domestic manufacturing more competitive.
There is room for product innovation, though I don't presume to know what form that might take.
Yes, AHY will have to fight to gain decent ROE, but I see this point in the cycle as quite close to decade or generational lows - hence my interest and willingness to buy hard when genuine opportunity presents.
Ash
AHY Price at posting:
$1.52 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
