Wyckoff trading method, page-1072

OK, I understand the trade and why, but can I just point out that today's bar isn't really a test, it might look like it using candlesticks, but it is only red on your chart because it is a candlestick and the close was lower than the open. Whereas it was actually an upbar (close to close), and an upbar which closed poorly (low).
Personally I think you should be using OHLC or HLC bars which are all black in colour (all black because the I think the colouring will be the same on your software as for candlesticks, even if you change to bars from candlesticks). If you are going to use Wyckoff/VSA analysis, using candlestick's may only confuse things, especially when you are starting out, unless you really understand what is going on, and how the candlesticks are formed.
So really, on an individual bar level (eg- not putting the rest of the chart into context), todays bar was a narrow spread upbar, which closed low, on low volume....=No Demand, and confirmation would come with a downbar in response (which it may or may not do....we'll see......).
(and if the next bar is up, particularly if volume increases a little, it may be suggesting absorption supply)

and just to play devil's advocate a bit on the trade,

I think you are looking for a short term swing trade,
but you are looking for an entry to buy it right up at the highs, where the recent price action has been a little confusing (do you remember on that mystery chart, when the trading became confused, it was either accumulation or distribution at the time), and there is at least some indication of distribution in the background.
And it will need to make a new high, or at least challenge the old highs to complete your trade successfully.
And in the background price has had repeated difficulties at this level for quite some time.

Now this trade might come off, and that will be great, but if you take this same trade a hundred times, I reckon you would probably lose overall, possily badly.
I can just hear my old online mentor Steve Phillips saying " the probabilities are against you at this level, and there will be much easier trades around than that if you just look around a bit harder"....... "Look for charts which are strongly trending higher, and are being supported by the market on long and short term timeframes, and buy the dips...... or look for shakeouts or tests, and trade them up to potential resistance"...... "Don't buy at resistance, if you really want to buy them up at this level, wait for the breakout and buy them on the test of the breakout".

Does that make sense ?? .......(I am not having a go at you or your trade.....just pointing out what I see from what I have learned over time).

On the Daily, since it gapped up, price has only really gone sideways, and the strong uptrend it had been in, has been lost,
and it has made repeated lower highs........which is all just a bit suss for me (this scenario often suggest distribution, or at least selling pressure).
So until it can at least make a higher high, or better still - a breakout above the previous highs (which would go a long way to prove price is strong again), I feel the probabilities are against you in the long run.



cheers