Once you get 4 x the production cost covered, you are in the money.
VRL production cost circa US$75M (50% share) for MII, therefore the 4x figure is $300M.
MII projected to run US$415-$435M on the VRL territories, I'd put the initial profit from Exhibition in the US$115 - $135M range , then add in the product marketing benefits, the DVD / Video profits, Pay TV and Free to Air and yes I think $150M is a conservative number.
It will take many years for this to be realised in full and it's offset against the risk from other films in the portfolio. The most critical aspect is VRL's actions to increase the economic exposure to the MII and MMIII films quite recently, just prior to MII release. Appears they made the right choice.
Ralphi
VRL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Not Held