Ann: Finbar Reports $21m Operating Profit and $8m NPAT in FY16-FRI.AX, page-7

By summing all the residual revenue in completed projects as at 30/06/16, I get $159.725. Add the Motive Project which was slated to be completed this calendar year, which gives ample time for settlements to occur by EOY, 30 June 2017. This gives $200.625m. In respect to Concerto, which I included in that total, all I know is that it will be completed in FY17, and as at 30/06/2016, 150 sales had been made of the 227 total, leaving 77 units unsold.

I have presumed that by EOY, 65 Concerto units will remain not settled, which is worth $28.477m. For the hell of it, I have assumed another $5 falls through the cracks, and to end up with a round number, I have allowed for a $.148m downward adjustment – The sum of these reduces total Settlements to $167m, which I'll presume is FRI's total Revenue. I have knowingly ignored rental income and management fees, and in a sense decided that they would be compensated for by the factors I used to convert Total Settlements to PBT and NPAT, and hence EPS.

If one presumes PBT is 25% of settlements, then NPAT would be $167m x 2.5 x .7 = $29.225m, and dividing by 232m shares gives a NPAT of 13c. If one applied a PER of 10%, that gives a valuation of $1.30. Crude as it's derivation might be, it is not far off the $1.22 that Euroz recently derived via a more complex valuation. In spite of the $1.22 valuation, Euroz mooted a target SP of $0.93.

I bought another 12,000 FRI today at 84c. This is an invest-to-hold, high-yield pay for me, with the end-game some years in the future. Because of the revenue lumpiness of this stock, valuing it on a single year's estimated performance is intellectually sloppy. However, because, on balance, future years are likely to be better, I am reasonably happy to use FY17 as a proxy for the future. The steady level of Executive-Director buying suggests to me that those in possession of the facts value FRI somewhat higher than its current SP.