RXL 3.23% 15.0¢ rox resources limited

Ann: Rox accepts $21M offer for Reward project,MZN-RXL.AX, page-43

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  1. 3,055 Posts.
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    Just because Mulholland wants nothing to do with actually mining doesn't mean Teck, as the major partner in the JV, has to buy them out. Teck has the leverage to force Rox to do things. It works kinda like this.

    Teck can afford the DFS costs (4x as many 1km deep holes, met tests, mining studies, blah blah) and knows RXL can't. Using the JV agreement and the basic need for Rox to fund itself to completion and then stump up 30% of a mine, Teck knows it has Rox by the short and curlies. It can just carry on (indeed must carry on) working on the project; do you think Rox would accept Teck just saying "Look, we'll take 2 years off and meet minimum commitments while we fridge this bad boy"? No.

    So Rox is faced with a ticking clock - it needs to get itself in a position to fund its 30% equity of the project (or the establishment of a formal company to hold the JV of which it would own 30%) before the completion of a DFS.

    This means a market cap approaching maybe $150M, in maybe 2-3 years time.

    To get there, as a company with only one trick in its repertoire which is a 30% free carried interest in a Zn project, RXL has to get the market to make it worth about $150M.

    RXl has a few ways to do this, including slathering out massive dilutative cap raisings (hey, it's all market cap, right?), doing actual in-ground work, finding copper at Bonya, etc. it also needs to sell its value proposition, and the market clearly doubts the proposition of "We will sell out way before the vinegar stroke, for $20M mostly in scrip and loans, to another junior exploration company"

    The market also doubts Rox's ability to deliver sustained exploration effort. it's nice to get someone to JV in on Teena and do all the work, but you can't ramp up Rox's market cap passively, and no one seems to believe that Rox can actively explore and find a second pony for this rodeo. Bonya? Really? 60 deep RC holes, millions of dollars, when Rox hasn't spent million of dollars but has raised money in dribs and drabs every year and a huge slug of it goes to Mulholland?

    So, yeah, he could have spruiked it better from the get go. The company could manage expectations better and commit to being in Teena instead of cashing out for $8M and a promise of more. It could be highlighting how it is on to great ground at Bonya by actually drilling Bonya. It could work up Fisher Easyt, or flog it off. it could have even pegged lithium like everyone else and raised its market cap and cash reserves.

    A vehicle for the MD to keep paying himself is nothing worth investing in, and lacking some gutsy drilling Rox actually pays for, what else are people tipping money into this dog for?
 
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Last
15.0¢
Change
-0.005(3.23%)
Mkt cap ! $57.48M
Open High Low Value Volume
16.0¢ 16.0¢ 15.0¢ $163.8K 1.089M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 368796 15.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
15.5¢ 210000 3
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