AKK - why the share is heading up, page-3

I think government policy was more to blame for the US bubble more so than Allen Greenspan. Greenspan was partly right about leaving pricing up to market forces to decide when a correction naturally occurs. However, I think Greenspan underestimated the effects US Government policy meddling had on manipulating house prices and how it was inhibiting natural market corrections pre 2007.

Saying that - god help Australia if we ever run out of leavers to pull and push in relation to housing policy/ negative gearing etc. One almighty crash could ensue here too.

Anyway back to oil.

Thanks for adding your points cmonaussie- you are right - Macro oil is far from rosy despite the recent move to $40. However, I think as the bearish macro oil conditions start to end (if they do) that will feed down into more bullishness towards shale businesses even if oil is not yet at a price where shale oil is profitable.

Think of it like anticipation before an announcement - the bets are placed based on research and reasonable assumptions. Consequently, the SP starts to go up before proven profitability is actually confirmed for the company. A bit like futures so to speak.

I believe AKK's SP will go up before it has even hit profitability per oil barrel as long as confidence builds and bullishness on macro oil conditions continue to occur.

In other words: I take a bit of risk, if I profit, I sell and cash in and then the next guy takes the next lot of risk potentially profits and then passes the risk on to person number three.