Long term financial sustainability, is this not a debate then on quality and margins?
And a minor yet important debate about fast entry and timing.
I agree the Chinese will drop anything that is not profitable and with that any loyalties.
IMO answer the below questions and you will have a better idea around who will make it.
What is the LCE demand for the battery market? Is it 99.5% LCE or lower, or is demand for 99.995% and higher?
What are the markets for low grade batteries (<99.5%) and high grade batteries >99.995%?
What is the price premium or difference between < or = to 99.5% LCE compared to 99.995% and above?
What is the cost of extracting brines vs hard rock to LCE?
What quality LCE product do brines vs hard rock produce?
Pulling numbers from Deutche the biggest competitive advantage for PLS is joining up with downstream producer GLC. This brings their on paper LCE COP down to around USD 3000 / tonne (8x$200/tonne spod + $1550/tonne conversion). We know ORE is producing industrial grade LCE for >$3000 / tonne from their last quarterly, though by 2025 ORE should have sorted out their issues and are forecast to have a COP of USD 2500 / tonne.
Above price chart obviously shows there is demand more for premium battery grade product. > $5000 / tonne price difference. This would make a hard rock venture more profitable over brines producing <99.5% LCE. This is now and not neccesarily the future. Seems spodumene would need to have a superior LCE product that warants a price premium of at least >$500 / tonne over brines to be competitive long term.
So IMO it comes down to quality and demand.
Anyway, PLS is a shot duck at the moment.
@HappyCats I notice you like KDR. Might want to check the iron content in the spodumene there...........
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