Same ol same ol?

I don't wish do diminish the very real structural threats being faced by FLT. Also, I don't wish to deny that this is a highly discretionary business that can always be expected to be hard hit by an economic or market downturn.

However, I think it should also be acknowledged that there are at least 3 powerful factors impacting this business that will conspire to virtually guarantee periods of stagnant, or even falling, earnings. The three factors are, in no particular order: (a) highly discretionary and thus cyclical revenues, (b) high volume, low margin business, and (c) large capital spending program, currently.

I don't see why a current stagnant earnings outcome should, of its own, suddenly vindicate all the pundits that have been prophesying FLT downfall. It feels very much like we've been here before. The business, as far as I can tell, has not suddenly change in any fundamental way. It is still hugely cash generative. It has loads of cash in the bank. And it still holds a commanding market share in outbound travel (in Australia).

I personally won't be buying more (unless it drops substantially further), as I am already more than sufficiently exposed, and I believe it would be foolhardy to completely dismiss the risks.