Low risk buy - reversal?, page-2

Risk is in the mortgage book side of the business. The debt agreement administration business isn't growing (gov release today was only 2% increase in market from March qtr last year) and the billpay hasn't had a huge ramp up. So we're left with the mortgage business that looks susceptible to any downturn in the economy (this is higher risk lending after all).

To put it another way - why buy FSA for a 7% dividend and exposure to mortgage losses than the big banks with >10% dividend yield? Well run company and a good market share in the debt agreement space...but they've failed to convert their clients into further business (billpay, brokering to offer other services -power, telco, utilities to clients in stress etc)

As far chart, it says it all - definite downtrend has formed. I think we need to get yield above 10% (so this gets a bid from the yield chasing bots) before we can reach a floor - probably at worst 60cents - meaning a further 30% fall. At best consolidate around the 90cent level.

I personally think it'll trade within the 90-100cent sideways band until economy really picks up